Spatial spread, Karnataka pilot

Seed an infection in any district and run a 180-day spatial simulation. Karnataka is the pilot geography; the model is designed to extend to other states.

Outputs are decision-support for scenario exploration, not forecasts.

Day 0

Seed

Selected district Bengaluru Rural Choose from the list, or click a district on the map.

District

This is the keyboard-accessible alternative to map selection.

Infected animals 100

About this model

PatchSim is a deterministic metapopulation SIRSV model in which each district is a patch. Inter-district connectivity is taken from a static mobility matrix. The model simulates periodic pulsed vaccinations with parameters vaccination coverage, vaccination effectiveness, immunity waning after natural infection and vaccination. The model parameters are estimated from literature and publicly available datasets. The simulation runs for 180 days and reports daily new infections per district.